On April 22, 2025, a devastating militant attack occurred in the Pahalgam region of Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 26 individuals, including Indian and foreign tourists. The attack was claimed by a newly emerged group, the Kashmir Resistance. India swiftly attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militants, intensifying already strained relations between the two countries.​

India's Response:

In retaliation, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a significant agreement governing water sharing between the two nations. Additionally, India closed the Wagah-Attari border crossing, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and ordered Pakistani nationals with SAARC visas to leave the country within 48 hours. These actions marked a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions.​

Pakistan's Reaction:

Pakistan's Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, responded by stating that the next two to three days are crucial and warned of potential imminent actions. He emphasized that Pakistan's armed forces are on high alert and expressed readiness to use nuclear weapons if the country's existence is threatened. Although he later clarified that he did not predict a war within three days, he maintained that the threat of war is real.​

Indus Waters Treaty Tensions:

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India has been met with strong opposition from Pakistan. The treaty, established in 1960, is vital for Pakistan's agriculture and hydropower. Pakistan's National Security Committee declared that any attempt to divert water would be considered an "Act of War". Pakistan is preparing to challenge India's suspension through international legal avenues, including the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the International Court of Justice.​

Military Escalations:

Both countries have reported increased firing incidents along the Line of Control. For the fifth consecutive night, Pakistan opened unprovoked firing, according to Indian security forces. India has intensified military preparedness, including missile tests and heightened air force activity. In Kashmir, Indian forces have detained nearly 2,000 individuals and demolished homes of suspected militants.​

International Concerns:

The international community is closely monitoring the situation, given the nuclear capabilities of both nations. The World Bank, a mediator in the Indus Waters Treaty, has refrained from commenting on the suspension. Experts warn of significant economic and humanitarian consequences if the treaty remains suspended and tensions continue to escalate.​

Conclusion:

The situation between India and Pakistan remains tense following the Pahalgam attack and subsequent actions taken by both nations. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and military escalations have raised fears of a larger conflict. Diplomatic efforts and international mediation may be necessary to de-escalate tensions and prevent further deterioration of relations.​

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