President Donald Trump has claimed a significant trade victory with China, following a dramatic de-escalation in a tariff war that had pushed the global financial system to the brink of collapse. The breakthrough, achieved during high-level negotiations in Geneva, saw both the US and China agree to drop a combined 115 percentage points in tariffs, calming markets and setting the stage for a new era of bilateral trade talks.

According to officials involved, Trump’s decision to deploy experienced and pragmatic negotiators — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer — was pivotal. The two-day talks ended with both nations agreeing to rollback tariffs. The US reduced its highest China tariffs from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China dropped its retaliatory tariffs from 125 percent to 10 percent.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett described the deal as a fresh start with China, noting in a CNN interview that this marked the beginning of a new and more constructive phase in US-China trade relations.

From brinkmanship to breakthrough

This outcome marks a significant shift from the aggressive and maximalist strategy Trump had employed for months, one that many feared could tip the US economy into recession. The president's approach, often chaotic and unpredictable, involved imposing steep, sudden tariffs — a move he dubbed Liberation Day on April 2 — which rattled supply chains, financial markets, and global leaders.

Yet, despite widespread concern and criticism from economists and political allies, Trump insisted his approach was strategic. Advisors now reveal that behind the scenes, Trump was exploring multiple off-ramps from the confrontation, influenced heavily by red alerts flashing across global supply chains and warnings from major industry executives.

As one Republican senator described the situation to CNN:
This is really the first time it’s been possible to actually see the path to land this plane without some cataclysmic economic disaster

Trump’s decision to send Bessent and Greer to Geneva, negotiators perceived as serious, level-headed, and empowered, helped reassure both financial markets and Chinese counterparts. The talks were described as intense but constructive, laying the groundwork for future high-level discussions.

Strategy or improvisation

While Trump’s advisors continue to argue that the chaotic trade maneuvering was part of a calculated plan, the president himself frequently emphasizes flexibility over rigid strategy. According to officials, Trump views unpredictability as a strength — a tactic derived from business negotiations — often choosing to pivot swiftly depending on how global players respond.

Strategic uncertainty was a phrase often repeated by Bessent, who privately discusses game theory to explain Trump’s methods. The idea was to push rivals to the negotiating table by making them unsure of what came next.

Indeed, many of Trump’s moves — including pausing reciprocal tariffs on over 100 countries and offering bilateral deals out of the blue — point to a more reactive than planned process, one designed to preserve leverage while appearing to offer pathways to peace.

Despite the inconsistency, the outcome has been striking: nations are lining up to negotiate with the US, even as Trump holds firm on a 10 percent global baseline tariff. Foreign diplomats, while privately uneasy, now acknowledge that this global rate is becoming a de facto reality in international trade talks with the US.

Market relief and new momentum

The market reaction to the China breakthrough was immediate and emphatic. Stocks surged globally on news of the tariff rollback, with investors interpreting the truce as a sign that Trump’s administration is pursuing stability over escalation — at least for now.

This new momentum has also given a boost to Trump’s trade agenda with other countries. A recent small-scale agreement with the United Kingdom has become a blueprint for fast-tracked, bespoke trade deals the US now seeks with more than two dozen countries.

According to foreign diplomats engaged in ongoing talks, Trump’s team now appears more organized and outcome-focused, following the China breakthrough. They describe current negotiations as tangibly positive, with clearly defined goals, empowered negotiators, and, for the first time in months, a sense of direction.

Trump’s advisors suggest the China talks were always going to be the hardest, most complex part of the strategy — and now that a framework is in place, the administration can apply the model elsewhere.

We have had a plan. We have a process in place. Now with the Chinese, we have a mechanism in place for future talks, Bessent said at a press conference in Geneva.

A 10 percent world

Perhaps the most significant and enduring outcome of Trump’s trade strategy is the quiet acceptance of a global 10 percent tariff as the new normal. While the administration’s earlier 145 percent peak rates were intended as negotiating bludgeons, the current uniform tariff is seen as both manageable and permanent.

This shift reflects Trump’s fundamental belief that trade is more than just economics — it is geopolitics. As he told reporters, his interventions in global conflict zones like India and Pakistan were made possible by trade leverage.

People have never really used trade how I use trade, Trump declared, adding that his broader vision involves restructuring the global trade order to prioritise American manufacturing and economic security.

Though tariffs remain high, the White House argues that this is a strategic victory: the US has retained leverage, lowered risks of recession, and brought trading partners back to the table under American terms.

Looking ahead

With a more pragmatic tone emerging from Washington and new talks underway, there is cautious optimism that the Trump administration can convert short-term gains into longer-term stability. However, experts warn that the unpredictability at the heart of Trump’s approach still poses risks — especially if future talks stall or economic indicators worsen.

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