Following the successful ouster of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the Trump administration is reportedly targeting Cuba as its next geopolitical focus. According to a Wall Street Journal report, senior US officials are actively seeking insiders within the Cuban government who may be willing to negotiate a political settlement to remove the island’s Communist leadership by the end of 2026.

The administration believes that Cuba’s long-standing regime is more vulnerable than at any point in decades. Analysts and US officials cite the collapse of Venezuela’s economy and the loss of a critical ally for Havana as leaving the island’s economy exposed. This has placed unusual strain on Cuba, causing chronic shortages, power blackouts, and a decline in oil supply, which have heightened the perception that the government’s grip on power could be tested.

Trump has publicly signalled his hardline approach. In a 11 January social media post, he urged Cuban leaders to negotiate an agreement with the United States, warning that there would be “NO MORE OIL OR MONEY” support for Cuba. This statement reinforces the administration’s broader strategy of combining economic pressure and diplomatic engagement to influence political outcomes. Measures already implemented include curbs on overseas medical missions, which are vital for generating hard currency, and visa bans on officials linked to these programmes.

The Trump team draws lessons from the Venezuela operation of 3 January, which involved the capture of Maduro and the death of Cuban security personnel allied with him. US officials reported that the raid’s success was aided by an insider within Maduro’s inner circle. This reinforces Washington’s belief in leveraging internal dissent or pragmatism as a catalyst for political transition in authoritarian regimes.

Despite growing pressure, Cuban leaders remain defiant. The island’s power structure is dominated by Raúl Castro, 94, while President Miguel Díaz-Canel, 65, manages day-to-day governance. Díaz-Canel recently addressed the nation, emphasizing that “there is no surrender or capitulation possible nor any kind of understanding based on coercion or intimidation.” Tens of thousands of Cubans participated in mass demonstrations in Havana to denounce US interference and to protest against sanctions tightening.

Cuba’s strategic significance goes beyond political considerations. The island sits atop major reserves of nickel and cobalt, which are critical for electric vehicle batteries, aerospace components, and advanced defence systems. These resources are highly sought after by the United States, particularly as it seeks to secure supply chains independent of China. Additionally, Cuba has untapped potential for offshore oil and gas, while its geographic location near the Windward Passage makes it a vital maritime hub controlling access to the Caribbean and the Panama Canal, a critical artery of global trade.

Cuba’s economy, already fragile, faces mounting pressure from sanctions and underinvestment. Despite decades of hardships, the government has managed to suppress dissent effectively, facing only two major protest waves: Havana in 1994 and nationwide demonstrations in 2021. Human-rights groups report that over 1,000 political prisoners remain in detention, highlighting the regime’s capacity for internal control.

The Trump administration’s approach aims to identify potential reform-minded figures within Havana’s ruling establishment who may recognize the precarious state of the economy and political isolation. US officials have met with Cuban exile groups and civic leaders in Miami and Washington, focusing on possible insiders willing to cut a deal rather than cling to power amid economic collapse.

International reactions have emerged as well. Russia condemned US threats, labeling them as blackmail, and reaffirmed its support for Havana. This signals that any potential political maneuvering will occur amid a complex global strategic landscape.

Cuba’s natural resources and strategic location make it an attractive target for Washington’s post-Venezuela policy. Nickel, cobalt, iron ore, chromium, copper, petroleum, timber, and silica reserves position the island as a critical player in energy and defense supply chains. Coupled with the political instability stemming from the economic collapse of Venezuela, US strategists view Cuba as ripe for transformation, provided insiders can be persuaded to negotiate.

In conclusion, the Trump administration’s Cuba strategy combines lessons from Venezuela, targeted economic and diplomatic pressure, and efforts to engage potential regime insiders. While the Cuban government remains resilient under Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro, economic strain, sanctions, and global geopolitical interest make the island a significant next focus in Washington’s Latin America policy. The coming months will reveal whether internal dissent or pragmatic negotiations can trigger a political transition in Havana, echoing the post-Venezuela strategic push by the United States.

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