A growing internal split is surfacing within President Trump's foreign policy circle regarding how best to approach Russian President Vladimir Putin and resolve the ongoing Ukraine war. The latest developments have added complexity to Trump's peace-focused narrative as fresh missile strikes from Russia and slow-moving negotiations are raising doubts about Moscow’s sincerity.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg have openly cautioned Trump, urging a tougher stance on Russia. Their concerns reflect a hardening view within parts of the administration that Putin is not genuinely pursuing peace but instead playing for time to secure battlefield advantages and negotiate better terms, possibly including territorial control in Ukraine.

Trump Sides With Optimistic Envoy Steve Witkoff

Despite mounting pressure from his advisors, Trump has so far remained aligned with Steve Witkoff, the US envoy who has personally met Putin twice in Moscow. Witkoff believes that Putin wants peace and sees diplomatic resolution as viable. His optimism has shaped Trump’s strategy focused on swift peace negotiations and a broader US-Russia reset.

Trump has reiterated that he can end the war within 24 hours of retaking office, a claim now moderated by Kellogg, suggesting it may take up to 100 days.

Missile Strike in Sumy Intensifies White House Debate

The rift deepened dramatically after a Russian ballistic missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 34 civilians. The strike provoked a range of reactions from the administration. While Trump condemned the attack as “a mistake,” his language was seen as relatively mild.

In contrast, Rubio called the strike "horrifying," and Kellogg said it “crosses any line of decency.” Their stronger rhetoric reflects a faction within Trump’s camp pushing for stronger retaliation and greater accountability for Russian actions.

Sanctions Under Discussion Amid Strategic Deliberations

Trump’s frustration with Putin appears to be growing. Yet, he has stopped short of implementing fresh sanctions, particularly against Russia’s oil sector, despite multiple calls from his team. Instead, Trump seems keen to preserve diplomatic leverage by holding off on punitive actions.

Behind the scenes, however, both the State and Treasury Departments are preparing new sanctions packages. As per former State Department official Daniel Fried, these contingency plans could be activated if Trump decides to change course and apply pressure on Moscow.

Congress Pushes Its Own Sanction Agenda

Congress is also taking a more aggressive line. Senator Lindsey Graham, with support from at least 50 lawmakers, has proposed legislation to target Russia’s oil sector if Moscow continues its aggressive posture. The White House has requested a delay, fearing it might disrupt ongoing negotiations. Still, pressure from Capitol Hill is likely to escalate if the situation on the ground worsens.

Zelensky Holds Firm as Putin Maintains Original Goals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that he views Russia’s actions as devoid of peace intentions. In remarks from Kyiv, Zelensky stated that only firm international pressure can force Russia to change course. Meanwhile, according to former NSC official Thomas Graham, Putin’s goals remain unchanged—control over strategic Ukrainian territories and the installation of a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv.

Trump’s Confidence Faces Battlefield Realities

Even as the situation deteriorates, Trump continues to insist that peace is achievable. He recently stated, “I think you’ll have some very good proposals very soon,” hinting that his diplomatic approach could soon bear fruit.

However, military dynamics suggest a bleak outlook. Russia is pressing its advantage on the battlefield, and there is no indication of genuine compromise from Moscow’s side. This has left Trump in a delicate position, balancing domestic political expectations, international diplomacy, and the escalating toll of war.

What’s Next: Critical Weeks Ahead for Trump’s Peace Gamble

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Trump’s peace overture can yield results or whether his administration will be forced to pivot towards a more hardline strategy.

National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes summed up the administration’s mood, stating the Sumy attack underscores the urgency of testing whether Russia is truly willing to negotiate. As April 30 approaches—the self-imposed deadline for ending the war within Trump's first 100 days if reelected—all eyes will be on how Trump responds.

In the words of Marco Rubio from Brussels: “We will know soon enough—in a matter of weeks, not months—whether Russia is serious about peace or not. It would be good for the world if that war ended, but obviously, we have to test that proposition.”

The world now watches with bated breath as Trump’s diplomatic gamble plays out amid an ever-shifting landscape of war, diplomacy, and global security.

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