In a significant shift, US President Donald Trump announced Friday that he supports reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 80 percent, calling it a fairer rate and assigning the final decision to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The statement came just ahead of a critical weekend meeting in Geneva, where top US and Chinese negotiators are set to meet for the first substantive talks since the start of the 2025 trade escalation.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said,
80 percent tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B, referring to Bessent. He also reiterated his long-standing demand that China increase imports of US goods, adding,
China should open up its market to USA — would be so good for them. Closed markets don’t work anymore

Trump’s remarks mark a rare public concession, though economists and trade analysts say even an 80 percent rate would continue to choke trade flows. According to Ryan Petersen, CEO of logistics giant Flexport, such a rate could cut Chinese imports to the US by 60 percent, further squeezing supply chains already under severe strain.

The economic toll is mounting. On Thursday, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that a core measure of inflation would double to 4 percent by year-end, regardless of whether tariffs are rolled back immediately. The damage from months of disrupted imports, port congestion, and product shortages is already baked into the system.

Even if tariffs were eliminated this weekend, economists say price hikes and supply issues will persist for months due to the backlog of goods and hesitance among importers.

China’s Ministry of Commerce reported on Friday that exports to the US fell 21 percent last month, a figure expected to worsen as the full effects of the current tariffs play out. Still, Trump welcomed the decline, framing it as a win for the US and continuing to mistakenly equate trade deficits with monetary loss.

The Geneva talks begin under a cloud of uncertainty, with administration officials downplaying expectations for a breakthrough. According to insiders briefed on the preparations, the negotiations are framed as a first step, with no intention of striking a full agreement or even replicating the basic framework of the recent US-UK deal, which Trump unveiled with great enthusiasm earlier this week.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNN on Friday that no tariff adjustments will be made prior to the meeting, stressing that outcomes will only be known after talks conclude.

I think that everything will happen while the talks are happening, not before, Hassett said.
It will come out tomorrow what happens. It’s a negotiation

He added that Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would approach the talks with an open mind, but the administration remains cautious about forecasting any outcomes.

In a separate interview on Tuesday, Bessent clarified that the immediate goal was not to strike a major deal, but rather to begin the process of de-escalation.
My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal … but we’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward, he said.
145 percent, 125 percent — that’s the equivalent of an embargo. We don’t want to decouple, what we want is fair trade

The Trump administration's aggressive approach has already taken a toll on the US economy.
The latest gross domestic product (GDP) report revealed that the US economy contracted for the first time since early 2022, largely due to businesses rushing to stockpile goods ahead of higher tariffs. Notably, this downturn occurred before the most severe tariffs were even implemented, indicating the preemptive damage caused by uncertainty and fear of future restrictions.

Despite increasing warnings from economists, financial markets, and industry groups, the US and China remain far from reaching a comprehensive resolution. While Trump’s willingness to reduce tariffs from 145 to 80 percent is a significant concession, most trade experts believe a more substantial rollback — closer to 50 percent — would be required to restore anything resembling normal trade patterns.

Even with talks set to begin this weekend, Bessent warned that rebuilding trade ties could take years.
It could take two to three years for trade to normalize with China, he said, underlining how fractured the relationship has become and how deeply embedded tariffs are now in the global economic system.

What comes next

The Geneva talks are expected to span the entire weekend, with officials from both sides aiming to identify areas where immediate progress can be made — including logistics cooperation, regulatory alignment, and incremental tariff reductions. However, major structural issues such as intellectual property rights, currency policy, and export subsidies remain far apart, with no roadmap in place to bridge the gap.

Trump’s empowerment of Bessent to make the final call on tariffs is seen as a significant move, reflecting both trust in the treasury secretary and Trump’s own desire to avoid appearing too conciliatory. White House aides say the president is keen to portray any compromise as a victory, particularly as inflation fears mount and political pressure increases heading into the midterm campaign season.

The geopolitical stakes are high. A continued standoff could further destabilize global markets, slow growth in both countries, and exacerbate tensions in already fragile regions. On the other hand, even modest progress in Geneva could reset the tone of US-China relations and serve as a springboard for broader reforms.

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