US 10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.5% as markets await inflation and trade updates
Sandip Raj Gupta
09/Jun/2025

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US 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.5% amid anticipation of key inflation reports and trade negotiations.
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Markets watch the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data this week.
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May jobs report showed strong headline gains but mixed underlying economic signals pointing to softness.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady at around 4.5% on Monday, continuing its recent upward trajectory. Investors are closely watching a week packed with important economic data releases and critical developments in US-China trade negotiations.
A major factor influencing market sentiment is the renewed dialogue between the United States and China. President Donald Trump announced that officials from both countries will meet in London later today for a fresh round of trade talks. These discussions have the potential to ease tensions that have affected global markets and supply chains.
On the economic data front, investors are gearing up for several key inflation readings that could provide insight into the ongoing impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) will follow on Friday. Both reports are closely monitored to assess inflation trends that influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and bond yields.
Adding to the economic outlook is the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, expected on Friday. This survey offers a snapshot of consumer confidence, spending intentions, and expectations for the economy’s future — all factors that can sway financial markets.
Last Friday, Treasury yields experienced a jump after the release of the May jobs report, which showed slightly stronger-than-expected headline employment growth. However, a deeper look into the data revealed a more nuanced picture. Indicators such as private-sector hiring, jobless claims, and services sector activity suggested continued softness in the economy despite the headline numbers.
The steady yield on the 10-year note reflects this mixed economic environment. On one hand, stronger employment data supports the case for gradual monetary tightening, while on the other hand, signs of economic softness temper expectations for aggressive rate hikes.
As the week unfolds, market participants will closely analyze these reports and trade developments to gauge the direction of the economy, inflation pressures, and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
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