US Dollar slips ahead of US-China trade talks and major economic data releases

Sandip Raj Gupta

    09/Jun/2025

  • The US dollar index fell slightly amid renewed hopes for progress in US-China trade discussions in London.

  • Markets await key economic releases including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and consumer sentiment data.

  • Recent US employment data showed mixed signals, impacting currency market sentiment and expectations.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, slipped to around 99 on Monday. This decline trimmed some gains from the previous trading session. Investors are entering a busy week focused on important economic data releases and developments in global trade, particularly between the United States and China.

One of the main reasons for the market's cautious mood is the renewed hope for progress in US-China trade relations. US President Donald Trump announced that trade officials from both countries would meet in London later today. This meeting follows a recent phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Markets are optimistic that these talks could ease some trade tensions, which have been a major source of uncertainty and volatility.

Economic data is another key factor influencing the dollar’s movement. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday. The CPI measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services and is a key indicator of inflation. Inflation data is crucial because it influences decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates and monetary policy.

Later in the week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report are also due. The PPI tracks changes in prices from the perspective of the seller and helps indicate inflation trends at the wholesale level. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment report measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about the economy, which can influence spending and economic growth.

The US dollar had strengthened on Friday following the May jobs report, which showed slightly stronger-than-expected employment growth. Strong job numbers often support the dollar because they suggest a robust economy and the potential for interest rate hikes. However, other recent economic indicators, such as private employment numbers, jobless claims, and services sector data, pointed to some softness in the economy. This mixed data creates uncertainty among investors.

The ongoing US-China trade tensions have resulted in the imposition of tariffs, which can increase costs for consumers and businesses and potentially slow down economic growth. Therefore, traders and investors are closely watching how the incoming data and trade talks might impact the economy and, consequently, the dollar's strength.

In summary, the US dollar’s slight dip reflects a cautious market awaiting both diplomatic progress on trade and important economic signals on inflation and consumer confidence. The outcomes of these events will likely shape currency markets in the near term and influence broader investment decisions.


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