The US economy is set to add 190K jobs in June 2024, a noticeable decrease from the 272K jobs added in May. This anticipated decline reflects a cooling trend in the labor market, though it remains robust overall. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%, the highest level since January 2022.

Wages are likely to have risen by 0.3% month-over-month, a slight down tick from the 0.4% increase seen in May. This moderation in wage growth pushes the yearly gain to 3.9%, down from 4.1% in May, marking the lowest year-over-year wage increase since June 2021. Despite this slowdown, the labor market continues to exhibit strength.

Throughout 2024, the average monthly payroll growth has been 248K, slightly down from 251K in 2023 and significantly lower than the 377K average monthly growth in 2022. These figures underscore a gradual cooling in the pace of job creation as the labor market adjusts to various economic factors.

The projected June figures suggest that the US labor market, while still robust, is experiencing a gradual deceleration. This trend is consistent with broader economic signals indicating a potential easing of labor market pressures.

Despite the slowdown in job growth and wage increases, the overall health of the labor market remains strong. The steady unemployment rate and continued job additions, although at a slower pace, point to a resilient economy adapting to changing conditions.

In conclusion, the US economy's addition of 190K jobs in June 2024, alongside a stable unemployment rate of 4% and moderating wage growth, highlights a cooling but strong labor market. The average monthly payroll growth figures for the past three years further illustrate this trend, providing valuable insights into the labor market's trajectory as it navigates through 2024. As economic conditions continue to evolve, these labor market indicators will be closely watched by policymakers, businesses, and investors alike.

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