US markets close mixed amid trade negotiations and Fed rate speculation

Sandip Raj Gupta

    18/Apr/2025

  • Dow slumped while S&P 500 held slight gains as Wall Street reacted to stock-specific movements and policy signals.

  • Eli Lilly surged after positive drug trial, Apple rebounded, while UnitedHealth dragged Dow with a sharp drop.

  • Trade talks, Fed rate cut demands, and jobless claims data shaped market sentiment ahead of Easter holiday.

Wall Street Ends Mixed Ahead of Easter Holidays

The United States stock market delivered a mixed close in the session leading up to the Good Friday holiday, reflecting investor reactions to ongoing trade negotiations, a shifting monetary policy outlook, and company-specific news. The performance across major indices highlighted the market’s uncertainty and caution, with some sectors advancing and others sharply declining.

The S&P 500 posted a marginal gain of 0.1%, driven by strong gains in Eli Lilly, which soared 14.3% following a promising result from a diabetes drug trial. The trial demonstrated that the company’s weight-loss pill rivalled Ozempic’s performance, drawing investor enthusiasm and sparking renewed interest in healthcare innovation.

Apple Inc., one of the world’s most widely held stocks, rose 1.4%, helping lift the broader tech space. This uptick followed days of pressure on the stock due to demand concerns and regulatory developments, but its resilience ahead of earnings reports suggested investor confidence in its long-term fundamentals.

However, not all sectors shared in the optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 527 points, largely due to a 22.4% plunge in UnitedHealth Group shares. The healthcare giant’s weak earnings guidance sparked fears about broader sector weakness and dragged the Dow sharply lower. Given that UnitedHealth carries significant weight in the index, its decline disproportionately impacted the overall Dow performance.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session relatively flat, showing limited movement. Still, Netflix shares rose 1.2%, as investors looked ahead to its upcoming earnings report, with expectations that strong subscriber growth could drive momentum.

Trade Talks and Political Commentary Add Volatility

Beyond individual stocks, investor attention remained fixated on geopolitical and economic developments. President Trump’s remarks about “big progress” in trade negotiations with Japan and an effort to reignite discussions with China led to optimism but also uncertainty, as details remained vague and tariff timelines unclear.

Trump also renewed his public pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticising Chair Jerome Powell and demanding interest rate cuts. His stance introduced new speculation around the Fed’s next move, making investors wary of potential policy instability. The ongoing tension between the White House and the Fed is creating confusion about the trajectory of future monetary decisions.

This environment of political interference, combined with unresolved global trade tensions, has kept market sentiment highly reactive, prone to sharp swings on any news headline or policy hint.

Strong Labour Market Amid Uncertainty

Economic indicators offered a mixed bag of signals. The weekly jobless claims report showed a decline, indicating that the labour market remains robust. This data typically bodes well for consumer spending and supports broader economic growth. However, despite this strength, markets remained cautious, with investors preferring to see more clarity on trade policy and interest rate direction before making aggressive bets.

The positive jobless claims number also contrasts with Wall Street's broader caution, suggesting that while the underlying economy remains strong, external uncertainties are clouding the investment landscape.

Weekly Market Overview: Losses Across the Board

All three major US indices closed the week in negative territory. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq each dropped by 2%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1%. These declines reflect a week dominated by volatility, with investors reacting to an evolving blend of corporate earnings, macroeconomic indicators, and government commentary.

The mixed close indicates that traders are still evaluating risks, and while certain stock-specific stories like Eli Lilly's breakout or Apple's rebound brought temporary relief, they were not enough to change the overall cautious mood.

Sectoral Highlights – Healthcare and Tech Diverge

The healthcare sector was at the centre of attention. Eli Lilly’s explosive rally following the diabetes pill trial results was a bright spot, potentially changing the landscape of obesity and diabetes treatment markets. At the same time, UnitedHealth’s sharp decline reminded investors of the risks associated with weak forward guidance and earnings season expectations.

On the tech side, Apple’s rebound and Netflix’s pre-earnings momentum showed resilience, especially as investors look for strong results from big tech to stabilise the broader market. The sector’s performance will be critical in shaping near-term Wall Street direction.

Investor Sentiment and Near-Term Outlook

The broader tone on Wall Street remained cautious and reactive. Investors appear unwilling to make strong directional bets ahead of clearer resolutions on trade policies and central bank stances. The mix of corporate volatility, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tension has created an environment where newsflow dictates market direction.

As the Easter holiday gives traders a long weekend to reflect, focus will shift to the next wave of earnings reports, potential trade updates, and any new remarks from Federal Reserve officials. These will be crucial in shaping expectations for the coming weeks.

Conclusion

Wall Street’s mixed performance before Easter reflects a market caught between stock-specific optimism and macro-level concerns. Gains in companies like Eli Lilly and Apple were encouraging, but broader fears around trade wars, monetary policy uncertainty, and corporate earnings outlooks kept overall sentiment muted.

With weekly losses across all major indices, the message from investors is clear: caution is the dominant strategy for now. Unless there is clarity on the global trade front, policy direction, or a strong earnings season, market participants may continue to tread carefully.

As the US market returns after the Good Friday break, all eyes will be on new economic data, trade negotiations, and corporate performance. How these factors evolve will determine if Wall Street can regain its upward momentum or if the current consolidation phase continues.


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