In the unpredictable world of geopolitics, few leaders command more market-moving clout than Donald Trump. And as we head into a critical period for global finance, the former—and possibly future—U.S. President has once again made his presence felt.

Whether we like it or not, Trump’s return to tariff tactics, this time with a reported $50 billion tariff haul, is sending tremors across global supply chains. From Brussels to Beijing, governments and businesses are scrambling to respond to a reality where protectionism trumps predictability.

What’s more worrying—or perhaps more revealing—is that the world isn’t resisting. As noted in a recent Financial Times piece, global players are not pushing back against Trump’s aggressive economic moves. Instead, they seem to be accommodating or even adjusting to the new normal.

We once laughed off this strategy with the phrase TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). But now, investors must reckon with the harsher truth of TART (Trump Always Raises Tariffs).

🌐 A New World Order: Tariffs, Trade, and Tremors

The shift in tone is not just limited to the U.S. Trump’s economic policy—steeped in nationalism and short-term leverage—has a ripple effect across Asia, especially in countries like Japan, India, and China.

• Japan, traditionally aligned with the U.S., now finds itself in an identity crisis. Caught between an aggressive Washington and its own stagnant economy, it’s struggling to reassert relevance.

• China and India, despite fierce rivalry, are showing signs of strategic pragmatism. Their recent overtures are not rooted in friendship but in mutual recognition of geopolitical fatigue.

This realpolitik shift is being increasingly priced into global equity markets, particularly in India, where a blend of strategic independence and cautious diplomacy is creating new investment narratives.

🇮🇳 India’s Defence Sector: Beneficiary of Global Uncertainty

As geopolitical threats increase, India’s defence ecosystem is gaining prominence among investors. The logic is simple: Tensions fuel budgets, and budgets fuel order books.

A prime example is Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL). Long seen as a cornerstone of India’s public defence manufacturing effort, BEL has:

• Delivered consistent execution on key contracts.

• Maintained a robust order pipeline, even in uncertain fiscal environments.

• Emerged as a top institutional bet in defence-related funds.

The market is acknowledging a critical truth: When governments seek sovereignty, they spend locally—and BEL stands to gain.

In contrast, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), despite having an impressive order backlog, is underperforming in investor eyes. Why?

• Sluggish cash conversion cycles raise red flags.

• Delays in contract fulfillment hurt credibility.

• Operational complexity is eating into profitability, despite scale advantages.

In short, it’s not just size—but speed and efficiency—that drive investor confidence.

📉 Winners and Losers in a Fragmented World

The broader market is witnessing a similar dichotomy. Geopolitical tremors are creating both tailwinds and headwinds across sectors.

Winners:

• Electronic manufacturing and defence tech firms aligned with the Make-in-India vision.

• Agricultural input companies benefiting from global food insecurity.

• Logistics and warehousing firms as global supply chains diversify away from China.

Losers:

• Auto exports, particularly those reliant on U.S.-EU routes.

• IT and consulting firms, where American political hostility may curtail outsourcing.

• Pharma majors, who now face stricter regulatory scrutiny in the West.

🧭 Investment Strategy: Stay Nimble, Stay Local

In this Voodoo World, certainty is a luxury. Investors must focus on three pillars:

1. Agility: Avoid getting locked into long-term positions in globally exposed firms. Volatility will rise.

2. Local alignment: Companies catering to domestic strategic needs (defence, infra, energy) are safer bets.

3. Leadership strength: Look for firms with proven execution records, not just bloated order books.

For instance, BEL’s CEO has publicly outlined quarterly targets and met them with discipline. Meanwhile, HAL’s management has fumbled on timelines repeatedly—despite market goodwill.

🧮 Valuation vs Reality

The market is waking up to a tough truth: Macro narratives no longer shield micro underperformance.

Investors have been generous with defence sector multiples, often pricing in five-year forward optimism. But only those converting opportunity into revenue and profit will sustain valuation premiums.

Watch out for earnings upgrades based on ground-level data, not just policy announcements. Budget allocations don’t always translate into bottom lines.

🔚 Conclusion: When Strategy Becomes Survival

Donald Trump may be wielding tariffs like a hammer, but it’s the global economy that’s turning into glass.

India’s investors now have a new compass—one that points not to global goodwill but to strategic utility and operational excellence. From defence giants to logistics enablers, it’s no longer enough to exist in the right theme. Execution is king.

In a Voodoo World, survival is the new success, and markets are taking note.

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The Upcoming IPOs in this week and coming weeks are Shanti Gold International, Indiqube Spaces, GNG Electronics, Brigade Hotel Ventures, TSC India, Patel Chem Specialities, Monarch Surveyors & Engineering Consultants, TSC India, Swastika Castal, Savy Infra, NSDL.

The Closed IPOs are Monika Alcobev, Anthem Biosciences, Spunweb Nonwoven.

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