The week starting April 7th is poised to be a high-stakes period for global financial markets, as investors, policymakers, and traders assess a slew of critical economic indicators from major economies and monitor the intensifying global trade war.

At the centre of attention will be how tariffs are shaping inflation trends and central bank policies, with markets closely analysing new data releases and official remarks. Here's a breakdown of what to expect across the globe this coming week:

United States: CPI, PPI and FOMC Minutes in Focus

In the United States, all eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, scheduled for release midweek. These inflation metrics will be particularly important as the US-China trade war escalates, potentially driving input costs higher across supply chains.

Recent tariff hikes by both Washington and Beijing have raised concerns about inflationary spillovers, and investors will look for signs of pass-through effects in consumer and producer prices. A higher-than-expected CPI could reignite fears of stagflation, prompting concerns about a tightening monetary policy stance.

Adding to the mix will be the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, acknowledging risks from the trade war while maintaining a data-dependent approach to interest rates. Traders will examine the minutes to glean insights into internal Fed debates on inflation, recession risks, and the possibility of future rate moves.

Eurozone: Retail Sales and Germany’s Industrial Output

In Europe, Eurozone retail sales data will provide a window into consumer health amid persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Retail activity has been soft in recent months, and any rebound could suggest resilience in household spending, especially as energy prices remain volatile.

Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial production figures will be closely watched, given the country’s central role in EU manufacturing. A rebound could boost optimism, while continued weakness may fuel concerns of a technical recession in Europe’s largest economy.

United Kingdom: Monthly GDP Report

Across the Channel, the UK is scheduled to release its monthly GDP report, with February numbers expected to show mild growth after a slow start to the year. The Bank of England will be tracking this data as it navigates the balancing act between growth revival and inflation control. A positive surprise could raise the possibility of further rate hikes, while weaker data may support a pause in policy tightening.

China: Trade and Inflation Data

China will publish its March trade balance and inflation data, providing critical insight into the world’s second-largest economy amid its ongoing standoff with the United States. Analysts expect export growth to slow significantly as new tariffs take effect and global demand moderates.

Consumer inflation will also be monitored closely, particularly after recent surges in food and energy prices. High inflation could limit Beijing’s scope for monetary easing, while lower figures may allow room for targeted stimulus.

India: RBI Monetary Policy Decision

India’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its monetary policy decision during the week. With inflation currently hovering near the upper end of the RBI’s comfort zone, and economic growth showing signs of strain, the central bank faces a difficult choice.

Markets are split on whether the RBI will hold rates steady or go for a 25 basis point cut to support growth. The accompanying policy statement will be pivotal for gauging the future policy trajectory, especially in light of global monetary policy tightening, volatile oil prices, and fluctuating capital flows.

Broader Market Implications

Overall, the week is loaded with macro-sensitive events that could shape the near-term outlook for equities, bonds, and currencies across developed and emerging markets.

Key themes that will dominate headlines include:

• Trade war escalations, especially after China’s latest tariffs and the US response.

• Global inflation pressures, with rising consumer prices potentially spurring hawkish central bank responses.

• Monetary policy clarity, as central banks walk the tightrope between inflation control and economic support.

Investors will be on high alert, particularly in risk-sensitive asset classes such as commodities, emerging market equities, and tech stocks, which have shown significant volatility in recent weeks.

Indian Market Angle

For Indian investors, the RBI’s policy decision will have the most immediate impact. A dovish stance could boost equities and ease bond yields, while a surprise hawkish tone may spark short-term volatility. Additionally, global data releases, especially from the US and China, will influence foreign investment flows, rupee movement, and sectoral sentiment, particularly in export-driven industries.

In summary, the Week Ahead – April 7th will be crucial for shaping market expectations for Q2 2025. With global inflation data, central bank guidance, and trade headlines all converging, traders must brace for heightened volatility, stay informed, and focus on risk management strategies in uncertain times.

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The Closed IPOs are  Infonative Solutions Limited, Spinaroo Commercial Limited,Retaggio Industries Limited.

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