In a significant geopolitical development, Afghanistan has formally joined the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under a trilateral agreement with China and Pakistan. This move marks a strategic expansion of the CPEC initiative, which is part of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and has set off alarm bells in India’s strategic and diplomatic circles. The decision to include Afghanistan in the corridor underscores China’s growing influence in South Asia and indicates a shift in the regional power dynamics.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, originally a bilateral project between Beijing and Islamabad, aims to bolster trade, transport, and energy connectivity. It includes massive investments in roadways, railways, and energy pipelines across Pakistan, linking China’s western Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. With Afghanistan entering CPEC, the corridor is poised to stretch further northward, incorporating routes that pass through the war-torn nation, promising new infrastructure development and economic opportunities.

For Afghanistan, the inclusion in this corridor holds the potential for economic revival. The country, which has suffered decades of war and instability, may benefit from foreign investments, job creation, and the development of transport and energy infrastructure. China’s interest in Afghanistan is also fueled by the region’s vast mineral resources, including lithium and rare earth metals, which are crucial for modern technologies such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronics. The inclusion of Afghanistan into this growing economic corridor gives China a more stable and safer route to extract and transport these valuable resources.

However, while this trilateral alignment may seem economically beneficial for the stakeholders involved, it poses serious strategic and geopolitical challenges for India. Over the years, India has invested significantly in Afghanistan, building vital infrastructure such as the Zaranj-Delaram highway, the Afghan Parliament building, schools, and hospitals. India’s role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development had elevated its position as a trusted partner. But with China and Pakistan increasing their footprint, India now finds its influence diminishing in Kabul.

This move could be seen as part of a broader strategy of regional encirclement of India. China has already established a presence in key ports surrounding India, including Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Chittagong (Bangladesh). Adding Afghanistan into the CPEC framework means China now gains strategic depth on India’s western front. This tightening loop, often referred to as the “String of Pearls”, could have serious implications for India’s regional security and freedom of maneuver in its neighborhood.

Another major concern stems from the security implications of dealing with a Taliban-led Afghan regime. The Taliban, having taken over Afghanistan in 2021, is not yet internationally recognized by many countries, including India. The formal inclusion of the Taliban government in an economic pact with two of India’s principal strategic rivals—China and Pakistan—can be interpreted as an attempt to legitimize their regime and exclude India from regional forums.

Furthermore, this trilateral initiative directly challenges India’s efforts through the Chabahar Port in Iran and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Both these projects are critical to India’s connectivity ambitions in Central Asia and Afghanistan, especially to bypass Pakistan’s blockade of Indian goods to Afghanistan. By establishing an alternative Chinese-Pakistani route through Afghanistan, the new CPEC expansion may undermine the effectiveness of these Indian-backed trade corridors.

Moreover, the economic corridor through Afghanistan could also be used by Pakistan to push its strategic narratives, especially concerning Kashmir. With China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan supporting the same economic initiative, Pakistan might use this platform to marginalize India and assert its dominance in regional policy discussions.

China’s growing stake in Afghanistan through infrastructure and mining investments means it can exercise greater control over the supply of critical raw materials, particularly lithium, an essential component in green energy technologies. India, already facing stiff competition in securing global lithium supplies, may find itself further disadvantaged as China locks down these strategic resources in Afghanistan.

From a geopolitical standpoint, this development also indicates increasing Chinese influence in West and Central Asia, aligning with its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy. By bringing Afghanistan into its economic fold, China effectively cements its role as a dominant external power in the region. For Pakistan, this is a diplomatic win that enhances its regional relevance, particularly in the post-US withdrawal era in Afghanistan.

In contrast, India's policy of strategic autonomy and balanced regional partnerships may now need a serious recalibration. While Chabahar Port and INSTC were India’s counter to CPEC, their future viability now appears uncertain, particularly if Afghanistan prioritizes CPEC’s benefits under Chinese influence. This may prompt India to accelerate alternative trade partnerships, invest in multilateral forums, and strengthen diplomatic outreach in Central Asia, Iran, and even Afghanistan, if opportunities emerge.

India’s foreign policy establishment is closely monitoring these developments. There is growing consensus among strategic analysts that India will need to proactively defend its strategic interests, both by deepening partnerships with like-minded nations and by investing in new technologies and resource access agreements to offset China's growing advantage.

In summary, while Afghanistan joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor may bring developmental benefits for Kabul, it has far-reaching implications for India’s strategic and economic interests. The alignment of China, Pakistan, and the Taliban-led Afghanistan has redrawn the map of regional influence, placing India at a disadvantage. The need of the hour is a robust and forward-looking Indian response to preserve its influence, access to resources, and regional connectivity goals in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

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