New Delhi/Kolkata/Kochi/Ahmedabad/Ludhiana — June 23, 2025 — Results of the assembly byelections held on June 19 in five key constituencies across Gujarat, Kerala, West Bengal, and Punjab began rolling in early Monday, offering critical insights into the political mood ahead of upcoming state polls.

With votes being counted from 8 a.m., the UDF, AAP, and Trinamool Congress have already registered crucial wins or leads, signaling potential shifts in voter sentiment in regional bastions.

Kerala: UDF Wrests Nilambur from LDF

In Kerala, Aryadan Shoukath of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a key UDF ally, won the Nilambur assembly seat, reclaiming the segment from the ruling LDF. Shoukath, son of senior IUML leader Aryadan Mohammed, won by a margin of over 9,000 votes, defeating LDF’s candidate P V Anvar.

The victory in Nilambur, which saw the highest voter turnout of 73.26%, is being interpreted as a referendum on the Pinarayi Vijayan government’s second term performance. The LDF had hoped to retain Nilambur to reinforce its position ahead of local body elections, but the result suggests rising discontent in northern Kerala.

Congress leader K C Venugopal, reacting to the win, called it a “vote for secular values and grassroots governance.”

Gujarat: AAP Takes Visavadar, BJP Leads in Kadi (SC)

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) scored a significant breakthrough in Gujarat by winning the Visavadar seat in Junagadh district, a region where rural distress and agrarian issues have taken center stage in recent months. AAP’s candidate Jayanti Gohil edged out the BJP nominee by nearly 5,500 votes in a seat that recorded 54.61% turnout.

This marks AAP’s second assembly seat in Gujarat, reinforcing its strategy of building rural grassroots networks ahead of the 2027 state elections.

In Kadi (SC), however, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared poised to retain its traditional stronghold with candidate Sunil Rathva leading by over 4,000 votes. Kadi recorded 54.49% turnout.

AAP leader Gopal Italia, speaking from Ahmedabad, said, “This is just the beginning of Gujarat’s transformation. People want schools, hospitals, not speeches.”

West Bengal: TMC Dominates Kaliganj

In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress (TMC) candidate Alifa Ahamed led by over 19,000 votes in the Kaliganj constituency. The seat had seen 69.89% polling, one of the highest in the state, with the ruling party banking on development and welfare schemes to retain its grip.

The BJP, which had launched a high-decibel campaign targeting corruption and minority appeasement, struggled to make a mark. The Left-Congress alliance lagged far behind, unable to consolidate votes.

TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee tweeted, “People of Kaliganj have spoken. Bengal stands by Didi.”

This lead, if sustained, will reaffirm TMC's dominance in rural West Bengal, where it has faced growing pressure from the BJP in the past two years.

Punjab: Close Contest in Ludhiana West

In Punjab, early trends in Ludhiana West indicate a neck-and-neck contest between the AAP and the Congress. With only 51.33% voter turnout, the lowest among all five constituencies, urban apathy appears to have impacted vote swings significantly.

The bypoll was seen as a test for Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann, whose popularity has seen a dip due to issues like power shortages, municipal corruption, and law-and-order concerns.

The Congress, hoping to revive its state unit post the 2022 drubbing, fielded a former councillor with strong urban support. As of latest updates, AAP holds a narrow lead of around 1,100 votes.

Voter Turnout Overview:

Why These Bypolls Matter:

Though by-elections typically reflect local political dynamics, the results from today’s counting are being seen as bellwethers ahead of full-scale state polls due in Kerala, Punjab, and Gujarat in the next 18–24 months.

• For the UDF, the Nilambur win provides momentum against the LDF, which has dominated state politics for a decade.

• For the AAP, the victory in Visavadar and competitive performance in Punjab validate its expansion strategy beyond Delhi and Punjab’s initial gains.

• The TMC’s continued dominance in West Bengal underlines Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold, despite visible national opposition efforts to dent her popularity.

• The BJP, while steady in Kadi, must now reassess its rural strategy in Gujarat, where agrarian unrest is brewing.

Leaders React:

• Rahul Gandhi (Congress): "Nilambur result shows the power of unity and purpose. A big thank you to Kerala’s voters."

• Arvind Kejriwal (AAP): "Gujarat has taken the first step towards change. Visavadar will be remembered as a turning point."

• Mamata Banerjee (TMC): "Kaliganj's faith is my strength. We will continue to work for Bengal’s upliftment."

Conclusion:

The assembly bypoll results of June 2025 have thrown up significant outcomes, with three different parties—UDF, AAP, and TMC—registering decisive wins. While each result may seem localized, collectively they reshape the electoral momentum heading into a busy poll calendar in the coming year.

As the counting concludes in the coming hours and margins are finalised, these contests will be dissected further for insights into what lies ahead for India’s political map.

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