The Golden Dome missile and air defence shield, proposed by US President Donald Trump, is one of the most ambitious defence projects in decades aimed at protecting North America from missile threats originating from Russia and China. This system’s primary purpose is to detect and intercept missiles flying over the Arctic route, a strategic and less monitored pathway for potential attacks.

However, despite Trump’s confident public statements, the success of this project heavily depends on Canada’s involvement — a fact that cannot be overlooked. The system requires access to Canadian territory for radar installations and other infrastructure essential for early detection and interception of missiles heading toward North America. Without Canada’s participation, the shield would have significant blind spots, severely limiting its effectiveness.

Canada’s Strategic Importance

Canada’s vast Arctic terrain offers unique advantages in missile defence. The line-of-sight radars placed across Canada’s northern expanse provide critical vantage points to spot polar-route missiles early enough to activate the interception system. According to retired Gen. Glen VanHerck, former head of US Northern Command, Canada’s terrain is indispensable for the Golden Dome’s operational success.

Canada is already a key partner in North American defence through the longstanding NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) agreement, where both countries jointly manage air and missile defence. Canada funds about 40% of NORAD, and Ottawa plans to invest $38 billion in new Arctic radar infrastructure over the next two decades. These upgrades are essential for Golden Dome’s radar capabilities.

Political and Budgetary Uncertainties

Despite this, the political relationship between the US and Canada has been strained in recent years, particularly during Trump’s presidency, which was marked by trade conflicts and criticism of Canada’s defence spending. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that Canada will not be taken for granted, signaling a cautious stance on deeper military cooperation.

The Canadian government is exploring alternative security partnerships and remains hesitant about fully committing to the Golden Dome. The political debate in Canada also centers on the sensitive issue of missile interception — particularly the question of whether Canada would participate in the actual shooting down of missiles, a matter fraught with domestic concerns.

Funding is another unresolved challenge. Trump has requested $25 billion in initial funding for Golden Dome from the US Congress, but Canada’s defence budget for this purpose will only be finalized later this year. Ottawa has expressed openness to negotiations but insists that no commitments are finalized.

Benefits for Canada’s Defence Industry

Closer integration in Golden Dome could have significant benefits for Canada’s defence sector. Canada recently secured a $4 billion radar deal with Australia involving BAE Systems technology, which aligns well with the kind of advanced radar and interception systems required by the missile shield.

US defence leaders are eager for Canada to not only host radar installations but also participate in the production and technological development of missile defence systems. This cooperation could stimulate Canadian defence manufacturing and technology sectors, creating new opportunities and strengthening Canada’s strategic defence capabilities.

The Road Ahead

Ultimately, the success of Trump’s Golden Dome missile defence project depends less on US funding alone and more on Canada’s willingness to embrace a larger role in the missile defence architecture. It also hinges on repairing and strengthening US-Canada relations to ensure effective collaboration.

Without Canada, the Golden Dome system will face critical operational gaps, risking the safety and security of the North American continent. As Canada weighs its options, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether this ambitious project will take shape or remain an unrealized vision.

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