India's steel exports witnessed a sharp 30 percent decline in the January-April 2025 period, falling to 2.62 million tonnes, compared to 3.83 million tonnes in the same period in 2024, according to data released by metals analytics firm BigMint. This significant fall comes amidst a global oversupply of steel by Chinese producers and a sluggish recovery in international steel demand.

Flat Steel Takes the Biggest Hit

The primary component of India’s steel exports—flat steel products—was hit hardest, plunging to 1.81 million tonnes in Jan-Apr 2025, down from 3.09 million tonnes a year ago. Flat steel, used heavily in automotive, construction, and industrial applications, makes up a major share of India’s steel export basket, and its decline dragged down overall numbers.

In contrast, long steel exports remained stable year-on-year at 2,30,000 tonnes, while stainless steel exports rose slightly to 2,50,000 tonnes, offering minor relief to exporters.

Top Exporters Feel the Heat

Leading exporters such as JSW Steel and Tata Steel were hit significantly.

• JSW Steel’s exports dropped nearly 38 percent year-on-year, coming in at 1.11 million tonnes.

• Tata Steel recorded an even sharper 44 percent fall, with exports totaling only 3,20,000 tonnes.

Other firms, like ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel and Jindal Steel and Power, also registered declines, although their overall export volumes remained limited compared to JSW and Tata Steel.

Chinese Dumping Adds Pressure

A key factor behind the slump is the increased dumping of surplus Chinese steel into global markets. With domestic demand in China stagnating, especially after the collapse of its real estate sector, producers there continue to operate at full capacity, generating excess supply that is being pushed globally at lower prices.

This has created pricing pressure and competitive disadvantage for Indian exporters, especially as global buyers opt for cheaper Chinese alternatives. The U.S.-China and EU-China trade tensions have not managed to stem the flow of Chinese steel into the global market.

Demand in Key Global Markets Remains Weak

India’s traditional export destinations like Europe and North America have yet to recover from economic slowdowns, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical disruptions. Recovery in these markets has been patchy and slow, reducing steel demand significantly.

As per analysts, unless there is a broad-based recovery in industrial and construction activity in these regions, Indian mills may continue to face headwinds in export performance.

April Shows Glimmer of Hope with EU Demand

Despite the broader slowdown, April brought a silver lining.

• Exports to the European Union surged to a one-year high of 3,60,000 tonnes, as per BigMint’s data.

This spike came as the EU reset its quarterly steel import quotas, giving Indian exporters an opportunity to redirect shipments from sluggish markets like the Middle East and the U.S. to Europe.

Products like metallic coated sheets (categories 4A and 4B) were in demand, with India reportedly exhausting its quota for 4A and utilising 80 percent of the quota for 4B.

Exports to Middle East and U.S. Declined

While exports to the EU surged, shipments to other key markets declined in April:

• Exports to the UAE fell compared to March, largely due to low construction activity and steel inventory build-up.

• U.S.-bound exports also dipped, impacted by the blanket 25 percent import duty on all steel products by the U.S. administration.

Key Challenges for Indian Steel Exporters

1. Chinese oversupply and low global prices are making Indian steel less competitive.

2. Protectionist trade policies, like those in the U.S. and parts of the EU, are creating barriers.

3. Sluggish recovery in Europe and North America is limiting new orders.

4. Rising freight costs and currency volatility are adding to the operational burden.

What Lies Ahead for Indian Steel Exports?

Analysts believe that while April’s EU spike is encouraging, it may not be sustainable unless global demand picks up. Exporters may need to:

• Diversify their export destinations beyond Europe and the Middle East.

• Push value-added steel products, especially stainless and coated products.

• Engage in government-backed trade diplomacy to open new tariff-free access.

If domestic demand in India stays strong, steelmakers might shift focus back to local markets, especially in infrastructure, auto, and real estate sectors. But for now, export performance will remain volatile, influenced heavily by global trade policies and China’s production decisions.

In Summary
The January-April 2025 steel export data paints a challenging picture for Indian exporters, with Chinese oversupply, weak global demand, and protectionist tariffs driving the downturn. A brief uptick in April EU-bound shipments offers hope, but long-term recovery hinges on sustained international demand revival and market diversification strategies.

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