India’s telecom giants Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are projected to deliver robust financial growth over the next few years, buoyed by expected tariff hikes, continued user base expansion, and accelerating adoption of 5G services. Multiple brokerage houses, including Motilal Oswal and Goldman Sachs, have released optimistic forecasts for both companies, citing favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives that are reshaping the competitive landscape of India’s telecom sector.

Strong Financial Projections for Jio and Airtel

According to Motilal Oswal, Reliance Jio is set to register a 17% annual growth in revenue and a 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in operating income from FY25 to FY28. This growth will largely be driven by:

• A potential tariff hike expected by the end of 2025.

• The expansion of fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings.

• Increasing market share in the wireless space.

• Continued growth in home broadband and enterprise services.

Motilal Oswal views Jio as the primary growth engine for Reliance Industries, forecasting a 21% Ebitda CAGR for Jio from FY25 to FY27. The key enablers include the monetisation of 5G airwaves acquired in the 2022 and 2024 spectrum auctions, as well as improved financial metrics, including positive free cash flow (FCF) and higher Return on Capital Employed (RoCE).

Similarly, Goldman Sachs anticipates Bharti Airtel will achieve 15% annual revenue growth and 21% EBITDA growth for its India operations from FY25 to FY27. These projections are based on:

• Continued user gains, particularly at the expense of Vodafone Idea (Vi).

• An expected tariff increase in the second half of 2025.

• Improved performance across both wireless and non-wireless business segments.

In fact, the global brokerage has raised Airtel’s FY26-30 revenue estimates by up to 2%, citing better-than-expected Q4 FY25 results.

Tariff Hikes Likely to Drive Profitability

India’s private telecom carriers last implemented a tariff hike in July 2024, which helped improve average revenue per user (ARPU) across the industry. However, Bharti Airtel’s Vice Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Gopal Vittal, recently reiterated the necessity for further tariff increases to ensure long-term financial sustainability and support the massive capital expenditures (capex) required for 5G rollout and infrastructure development.

This sentiment is echoed by analysts, who believe that another price revision in late 2025 could significantly enhance margins for both Jio and Airtel, especially given the surge in 5G subscribers and expanding service portfolios.

Vodafone Idea’s Struggles Continue

Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea continues to grapple with severe financial challenges. The company’s capex plans, totaling Rs. 50,000–55,000 crore (US$ 5.85–6.43 billion), remain conditional on securing a Rs. 25,000 crore (US$ 2.92 billion) credit line from banks. The delay in funding has constrained Vi’s ability to invest in network expansion and 5G deployment, creating opportunities for Jio and Airtel to gain market share.

Goldman Sachs specifically highlights that if Vi fails to scale up its capex soon, Bharti Airtel is well-positioned to capture a larger portion of Vi’s dwindling subscriber base. The current market dynamics favour consolidation, with Jio and Airtel strengthening their duopoly status in India’s telecom market.

Surging 5G Adoption

One of the most significant contributors to revenue growth has been the rapid adoption of 5G services. In Q4 FY25 alone, Jio and Airtel added 21 million and 15 million 5G subscribers, respectively. This has taken their total 5G user base to 191 million for Jio and 135 million for Airtel, reaffirming their leadership in next-generation connectivity.

The ongoing monetisation of 5G spectrum, combined with new use cases across retail, enterprise, and industrial segments, is expected to drive average revenue per user (ARPU) higher, further boosting profitability.

Differentiated Strategic Approaches

Both Jio and Airtel have taken distinct strategic paths to achieve their goals:

• Jio is aggressively pushing its Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) business to provide broadband in underserved areas, complementing its digital ecosystem that includes content, commerce, and fintech offerings. With a strong cash flow from operations and declining capex, Jio is also expected to deliver consistent positive free cash flow (FCF).

• Airtel, on the other hand, is focused on premiumisation, aiming to grow its high-value customer base through superior service quality and digital innovations. The company continues to build on its Airtel Thanks platform, enhance its enterprise solutions, and strengthen its fiber and satellite broadband presence.

Investor Sentiment and Outlook

The bullish projections by top brokerages have boosted investor confidence, with both Jio (as part of Reliance Industries) and Airtel witnessing positive sentiment in equity markets. Analysts remain confident that the expected tariff hikes, continued subscriber growth, and 5G monetisation will collectively drive earnings growth and shareholder value over the next few years.

In summary, the outlook for India’s telecom sector remains highly favorable, especially for Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. As these market leaders continue to capitalize on structural shifts, strengthen their 5G ecosystems, and push for pricing improvements, they are well-positioned to deliver strong financial performance through FY25–28 and beyond. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea’s continued financial constraints serve to further consolidate the competitive advantage enjoyed by Jio and Airtel. The industry appears poised for a new phase of profitability, network upgrades, and digital service expansion, reinforcing India’s status as one of the fastest-growing telecom markets globally.

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