The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the earliest onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala since 2009, with the season setting in on May 24, 2025—eight days ahead of the usual June 1 arrival date. This early onset marks a significant shift in the monsoon pattern over the Indian mainland, potentially influencing weather conditions across the country in the coming months.

Early Monsoon Onset in Kerala

The IMD stated, “Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala today, the 24th May, 2025, against the normal date of 1st June. Thus, southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala 8 days before the normal date.” This early arrival is the earliest since 2009, when the monsoon began on May 23. Historically, the monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1 and then gradually advances to cover the entire country by early July.

In recent years, the monsoon onset dates over Kerala have fluctuated. Last year, it was May 30; in 2023, it arrived on June 8; in 2022, May 29; and in 2021, June 3. Despite this variability, the 2025 onset is notably early, suggesting dynamic climatic influences this year.

Meteorologists caution that an early monsoon arrival in Kerala does not necessarily translate to an early monsoon across all parts of India or predict the total seasonal rainfall. The monsoon is governed by complex regional and global factors, including oceanic conditions and atmospheric patterns. According to IMD’s April forecast, the 2025 monsoon season is expected to bring above-normal cumulative rainfall, with El Nino conditions—which typically reduce rainfall—ruled out.

Weather Update in Delhi

While Kerala welcomes the monsoon, the national capital is witnessing a contrasting weather pattern. The IMD forecasted thunderstorms and rain over Delhi during the weekend, offering relief from the current heat. The minimum temperature recorded in Delhi was 28.4°C, slightly below the seasonal average. The maximum temperature is expected to hover around 37°C during the weekend, accompanied by relative humidity levels at about 62%.

Delhi’s air quality remains moderate, with an Air Quality Index (AQI) reading of 120 as per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). An AQI between 101 and 200 falls in the ‘moderate’ category, indicating that air quality is acceptable but some pollutants may pose a moderate health concern for sensitive groups.

Severe Heatwave Conditions in Rajasthan

Contrasting with the onset of monsoon in Kerala and rain in Delhi, Rajasthan continues to battle an intense heatwave. The Indian Meteorological Department reported sustained high temperatures, with several districts experiencing between 44°C and 48°C, worsening the dry spell in the region.

The city of Jaisalmer recorded the highest temperature in the last 24 hours, reaching 48°C, marking one of the most severe heatwave conditions in recent times. Heatwave alerts are also active in Jaipur, Jodhpur, Bikaner, and other districts, where temperatures remain dangerously high and humidity levels remain low, ranging between 20 and 40%.

Radheshyam Sharma, Director of the Meteorological Centre, Jaipur, warned that severe heatwave conditions are expected to persist for the next five days, with temperatures likely to stay between 46°C and 48°C in some areas. The prolonged dry and hot weather is exacerbating water scarcity and increasing health risks, prompting local authorities to issue heat alerts and precautionary measures.

Summary and Outlook

The early arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala is a positive signal for the upcoming agricultural season and water resources in southern India. However, the heatwave in Rajasthan underscores the varied climate challenges facing different parts of the country simultaneously. Delhi’s forecasted weekend rain may provide some respite from the heat but highlights the transitional nature of weather as the monsoon gradually progresses northwards.

With monsoon expected to cover the entire country by July 8, close monitoring of weather patterns will be critical to managing water resources, agriculture, and public health, especially in regions experiencing extreme temperatures.

As India braces for a monsoon season predicted to bring above-normal rainfall, the interplay between early monsoon onset, localized heatwaves, and regional rainfall distribution will shape the socio-economic and environmental landscape in the coming months.

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